TOC – Lessons Learned from the Failure of Ebooks in 2000

Tools of Change – Lessons Learned from the Failure of Ebooks in 2000, and What They Mean to the Future of Electronic Publishing – Feb. 23

Michael Mace, Rubicon Consulting – mike@rubiconconsulting.com

Don’t fall in love with the way you do business today because that will change.

Mike’s Agenda:

Lessons from last time – circa 2000

more readers then than there are now
Mike shared quotes from 2000/01 which predicted a huge adoption of ebooks and readers

Issue 1 Not enough books

core customers are reading enthusiasts, they want everything and not enough was available
books were slow to become available, expensive to convert and publishers treated this like an experiment

Issue 2 Prices were too high

customer perception – an ebook is disposable, they value the hardcover and don’t want to pay
pricing was high b/c publishers wanted to protect their bookstore channel, hardcover pricing, and they were scared
high prices plus limited availability equals reluctance

Issue 3 Usage patterns

since they won’t buy a device we will put books on the thing they carry
problems – PC’s not comfortable, mobile devices too small and unique use pattern

Issue 4 Not enough periodicals

magazines and newspapers were viewed as disposable and a better fit than books for ereading
immediate delivery- before others was important
consumed in small chunks
but the electronic version has to be considered as good as the print version, advertising isn’t the same and there is competition with free websites

Issue 5 Marketing

right way is to find out who is the customer and what compelling problem can you solve for them
the challenge is, for most consumers books aren’t broken
marketing isn’t doing a good job of making the pitch
Mike feels B and N is doing the best pitch right now

Summary of the past

4 issues in the past that effect us today:

What does this mean for the future?

These things need to be solved – short stories for the electronic marketplace and the backlist
rethink the periodical – we have made a ton of assumptions that are driven on print and we need to move beyond that, how can magazines survive on just the editorial staff in an online environment?
disaggregated value chains – cut out the middleman, sell direct to customers
How much reader-visible value does our editing add?
How much demand generation do we really do?
Could an author get the same value through contract services? Will someone you just laid off go out there and do it themselves for a cheaper price?
Do the readers value your brand?
Do printed books go away and when?
When does it pay an author to go electronic only? (established author selling via electronic outlets) when 20-30% of the public have ebook readers, that is the tipping point (were still under 5%)
follow the money, when 25% of the population has devices, book publishing will change dramatically, the iPad brings the tipping point closer, when the price of an ebook raises the tipping point gets closer, competition b/t Amazon and Apple brings it closer

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